LONG-TERM TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

Regional temperature variability and precipitation variability have been strongly affected by climate change, highlighting the need for long-term assessments. This work examined historical temperature and precipitation data from several meteorological stations in the Sinaloa state, Mexico, to look for trends. Descriptive statistics, Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimation and climatic anomaly assessment were used to analyze data from 1961 to 2020. Increasing trends in maximum temperature were found at 33 of 37 stations with a median warming rate of 0.266°C per decade. Minimums were more variable regionally. The mean annual precipitation was 733.08 mm, with a median trend of −7.832 mm decade−1, but only at six stations was there a statistically significant trend. The seasonal analysis showed that significant amount of rainfall had occurred during wet season, and climatic anomalies indicated that there were significant variations between seasons. Regional analysis showed higher precipitation in the south of Sinaloa and slightly higher maximum temperatures in the north regions. These results show significant climate spatial and temporal variability which is crucial for continuing monitoring of meteorological variables, better water-resource management and regional climate adaptation measures.